Most crypto traders fail not because they pick bad tokens, but because they hold beliefs that are not their own. Halibut, a memecoin trader known for catching significant moves in multiple market cycles, argues that borrowed conviction is the silent killer of trading accounts. His framework for building genuine belief about positions offers a roadmap for traders who find themselves constantly shaken out of winning trades.
Halibut's trading philosophy centers on a simple but profound distinction: the difference between knowing something because someone told you versus knowing it because you understand it yourself.
"The biggest thing for me is just conviction," he explains. "If you don't have your own conviction, you're just going to get shaken out at the worst possible time."
This plays out predictably in crypto markets. A trader sees a respected account post about a token. They buy. The token drops 30%. Without understanding why they bought in the first place, they have no framework for deciding whether to hold or cut. So they panic sell at the bottom, right before the token reverses.
The trader with genuine conviction, who bought because they understood the narrative, the team, and the potential catalyst, experiences the same 30% drop differently. They can evaluate whether their thesis has been invalidated or whether this is simply noise.
Halibut identifies several ways traders end up holding positions without real understanding:
Influencer Following: Taking positions because a popular account mentioned it, without doing independent research
Group Chat FOMO: Entering trades because everyone in a chat is talking about a token
P&L Chasing: Buying whatever made someone else money, assuming it will work again
Notification Trading: Acting on fomo app or Twitter notifications without analysis
None of these build genuine understanding. They create positions held by people who will sell the moment sentiment shifts, which creates the exact volatility that shakes out other borrowed-conviction holders.
Halibut's process for developing genuine belief involves several steps:
Independent Research: Before entering, understand the narrative thoroughly. What is this token about? Why might it capture attention?
Catalyst Identification: What specific events could drive buying? Is it a celebrity connection? A technology launch? A viral moment?
Counter-Argument Development: Why might this trade fail? What would invalidate the thesis?
Size Appropriately: Position size should reflect conviction strength. High conviction with thorough research warrants larger positions.
The goal is not to be right about every trade. The goal is to know why you are in each trade so you can make rational decisions when price moves against you.
Halibut has caught several major moves in memecoin markets, but he admits that holding remains his biggest challenge.
"My biggest issue is selling too early," he acknowledges. "I've roundtripped a lot of winners because I got scared when it dipped."
His solution involves pre-committing to theses rather than reacting to price. If he buys a token expecting a specific catalyst to drive price, he holds until either that catalyst occurs or something definitively invalidates the thesis. A 30% drawdown, by itself, is not thesis invalidation.
This requires accepting temporary unrealized losses as part of the process. Traders who cannot stomach seeing red will constantly sell bottoms.
Halibut specializes in narrative-driven positions, which requires staying attuned to broader cultural and technological trends.
His evaluation criteria for narratives:
Novelty: Has this been traded before? Completely new narratives have the highest potential because there is no established ceiling.
Mainstream Potential: Could this escape the crypto bubble? Tokens that capture attention from non-crypto audiences have extended runways.
Clear Story: Can you explain why this should go up in one sentence? Complex theses rarely work in memecoin markets.
Timing: Is this narrative emerging or exhausted? Early narrative trading offers asymmetric returns; late narrative trading is gambling.
One counterintuitive insight from Halibut: the best trades often feel lonely.
"If everyone in your group chat is in a trade, that's usually not great," he explains. "The best entries happen when nobody is paying attention yet."
This creates psychological pressure. Humans are social creatures who seek validation. Buying something nobody else cares about feels uncomfortable. But that discomfort is precisely where edge exists.
Conversely, when a trade feels comfortable because everyone is in it, the easy money has likely been made. The remaining participants are exit liquidity for earlier entrants.
Halibut actively limits his information sources to maintain clarity:
"I don't follow that many people on Twitter. I don't spend all day in group chats. When I'm looking at a trade, I want to know what I think, not what everyone else thinks."
This deliberate information diet serves two purposes:
He recommends new traders find 5-10 accounts they genuinely respect and ignore the rest. Quality of information sources matters far more than quantity.
Halibut does not advocate for blind diamond-handing. Conviction should be strong but not rigid.
Situations that warrant reconsidering positions:
Thesis Invalidation: The specific reason you bought no longer applies
Information Change: New facts emerge that were not known at entry
Opportunity Cost: A clearly better trade appears and capital is limited
Significant Negative Development: Rug pulls, dev dumps, or other trust-breaking events
The key distinction is between price moving against you (which is normal and expected) and your underlying thesis being proven wrong (which requires action).
Halibut's approach to portfolio management reflects his conviction framework:
Concentrated Positions: Rather than spreading capital across many small bets, he prefers fewer positions with meaningful size where conviction is high
Cash Ready: Maintains substantial cash to enter new conviction plays without selling existing positions
No Averaging Down Without Reason: Adding to losers only if thesis remains intact and price offers better entry, not simply to lower cost basis
Clear Exit Criteria: Knows before entering what would cause him to sell
Halibut warns specifically about the danger of social validation in trading:
"When you buy something and then a big account tweets about it, you feel smart. But that feeling has nothing to do with whether the trade is good. You're just feeling validated, and that validation can keep you in trades you should exit."
Social proof works both directions. Seeing respected traders sell can panic you out of good positions just as seeing them buy can keep you in bad ones. Neither is a substitute for your own analysis.
Beyond pure analysis, Halibut believes in developing what he calls "taste," an intuitive sense for what will resonate with the crypto market.
This develops through:
Time on Charts: There is no substitute for hours spent watching how different token types trade
Post-Trade Analysis: Reviewing what worked and why after positions close
Pattern Recognition: Noticing similarities between current opportunities and past winners
Cultural Awareness: Understanding what the crypto audience finds interesting, funny, or compelling
Taste cannot be taught directly but develops through active participation and reflection.
Halibut frames trading as a long-term skill development process rather than a get-rich-quick scheme.
"You're going to lose money learning. Everyone does. The question is whether you're learning from those losses or just repeating them."
His recommendation for struggling traders: reduce position size dramatically and focus on process over outcomes. Small wins built on solid conviction are worth more than lucky big wins that teach nothing.
Ready to build your own conviction? Download fomo and start tracking what successful traders are doing while building your own independent analysis.
